Mechanisms that cannot be backtested, running forward on paper. Gates before dollars — the research that picked them is 06 RESEARCH. Ledgers refresh on the collector cycle; this page regenerates with them.
sampling gaps (machine asleep): 07-24 04:07 (−6.4h) · 07-24 09:21 (−2.8h) · 07-24 15:00 (−2.0h) · 07-25 03:49 (−3.5h) · 07-25 06:17 (−2.5h) · 07-25 08:30 (−2.2h) · 07-26 02:40 (−2.4h) · 07-26 06:04 (−3.4h) · 07-26 08:56 (−2.9h) · 07-27 05:10 (−4.0h) · 07-27 08:54 (−3.7h) · 07-27 12:22 (−3.5h) · 07-28 04:08 (−3.2h) · 07-28 07:13 (−3.1h) · 07-28 10:05 (−2.9h) · 07-28 12:20 (−2.3h) · 07-29 03:49 (−3.6h) · 07-29 06:30 (−2.7h) · 07-29 09:24 (−2.9h) · 07-29 11:39 (−2.3h) · 07-30 03:15 (−3.0h) · 07-30 06:06 (−2.8h) · 07-30 09:14 (−3.1h) · 07-30 11:29 (−2.3h) · 07-30 15:31 (−2.4h) · 07-31 04:58 (−3.9h) · 07-31 13:15 (−8.3h) · 08-01 00:27 (−11.2h) · 08-01 04:26 (−4.0h) · 08-01 07:26 (−3.0h) · 08-01 09:55 (−2.5h)
v2 quotes symmetrically and never moves — it measures the toll. v3 adds the standard defenses (drift skew, circuit-breaker pulls, inventory caps) with parameters fixed a priori. The distance between the two NET lines is what the defenses recover; the distance from v3 to zero is what is left.
| ts | event | type | edge_pershare | exec_size | profit_at_depth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T05:30:01+00:00 | Fed Decision in September? | SELL-ALL | 0.011 | 750 | 8.25 |
| 2026-07-31T04:58:29+00:00 | Fed Decision in September? | SELL-ALL | 0.012 | 190.1 | 2.28 |
| 2026-07-31T01:04:29+00:00 | Fed Decision in September? | SELL-ALL | 0.011 | 1,252.8 | 13.78 |
| 2026-07-30T23:05:57+00:00 | Fed Decision in September? | SELL-ALL | 0.012 | 241.1 | 2.89 |
| 2026-07-30T21:42:08+00:00 | Fed Decision in September? | SELL-ALL | 0.011 | 5,253.7 | 57.79 |
| 2026-07-30T20:14:04+00:00 | Fed Decision in September? | SELL-ALL | 0.012 | 420.5 | 5.05 |
| 2026-07-30T18:55:34+00:00 | Fed Decision in September? | SELL-ALL | 0.011 | 4,055.8 | 44.61 |
| 2026-07-30T17:25:51+00:00 | Fed Decision in September? | SELL-ALL | 0.011 | 3,890.3 | 42.79 |
| 2026-07-30T13:09:36+00:00 | Fed Decision in September? | SELL-ALL | 0.017 | 120 | 2.04 |
| 2026-07-30T11:29:02+00:00 | Fed Decision in September? | SELL-ALL | 0.006 | 645.8 | 3.87 |
| 2026-07-30T03:15:09+00:00 | Fed Decision in September? | SELL-ALL | 0.008 | 100 | 0.8 |
| 2026-07-29T23:58:57+00:00 | Fed Decision in September? | SELL-ALL | 0.011 | 300 | 3.3 |
| question | market | model | brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet | 0.73 | 0.704 | pending |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee | 0.25 | 0.278 | pending |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | 0.49 | 0.491 | pending |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | 0.50 | 0.500 | pending |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | 0.32 | 0.342 | pending |
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | 0.51 | 0.509 | pending |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? | 0.42 | 0.430 | pending |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July | 0.86 | 0.829 | pending |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | 0.38 | 0.395 | pending |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | 0.77 | 0.741 | pending |
| reward_daily | mid | spread | our_spread | q |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,000 | 0.205 | 0.01 | 0.005 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
| 1,000 | 0.395 | 0.01 | 0.005 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept |
| 500 | 0.885 | 0.01 | 0.005 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
| 300 | 0.535 | 0.01 | 0.005 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
| 200 | 0.825 | 0.03 | 0.015 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
| 200 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.01 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
| 200 | 0.665 | 0.01 | 0.005 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
| 200 | 0.675 | 0.01 | 0.005 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |